Hollywood’s biggest night, the 98th Academy Awards, is mere days away. Though the top categories like Best Picture and Best Director have been essentially decided for months, there still remains a number of debatable toss-ups in several categories. This year also introduces a brand new category: Best Casting, a kind of reward for the casting directors who find hidden gems and utilize actors’ star personas, which could make or break your Oscar pool. Here’s a comprehensive list of predicted winners, what would receive my vote if I had one, and what should have received a nomination in each category.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva has two of the three factors which often wins the day amongst the shorts: an intriguing title, and a premise which feels like a possible audition for a feature-length expansion (the third being star power). Besides these factors, the film is written, shot, and performed beautifully, with a bizarre but touching hook that quickly and effectively draws viewers in.
• Should Win: Jane Austen’s Period Drama may only traffic in one or two jokes, but those jokes are solid enough to carry a short film without any grander ambitions. Though Julia Aks and Steve Pinder have spared no expense in making the film feel authentic to the period (no pun intended) which it’s skewering.

Best Documentary Short Film

• Will Win: Netflix usually goes home with at least one award amongst the short films, and All the Empty Rooms (distributed by Netflix) fits that bill. It’s also the most broadly appealing, concerning a prescient subject that all Americans should get behind.
• Should Win: The Devil is Busy tackles a hot-button topic in an unexpected, sympathetic way. By focusing less on the controversial work within a women’s health clinic, and more on the person tasked with protecting it, the film shows the under-represented cost of ensuring the work gets done.

Best Animated Short Film

• Will Win: Of all three of the short film categories this year, this is the one I’m most conflicted towards. Butterfly has incredible animation, where literally every frame is an individual painting. Retirement Plan is a broadly appealing, funny film with a celebrity (Domhall Gleeson) narrating. The Girl Who Cried Pearls features some lovely stop-motion animation. Forevergreen scratches that itch for those wanting for a Disney/Pixar entry. For the sake of simplicity, I’ll go with Butterfly; it’s also a true story about a man who survived the Holocaust, which is often like catnip to Academy voters.
• Should Win: Sure, Retirement Plan didn’t have the most distinctive animation, but it’s the most enjoyable from beginning to end. Who among us hasn’t pondered a wish list of things to do once we finally have the freedom to actually get them done?

Best Original Song

• Will Win: We haven’t seen the likes of a song like “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters since the days of “Shallow” or “What Was I Made For?” – a chart-topping crossover hit, and a genuine earworm. Never mind the host of Grammy nominations and wins that the animated film also scored. Few categories feel as inevitable as this one.
• Should Win: “I Lied to You” from Sinners comes from one of the best scenes of 2025, but let’s be real. “Golden” is a banger song from a film full of certified bangers. Of course, I’d take a Train Dreams win wherever I could get it, but I’ve listened to the KPop Demon Hunters songs many more times than I have any other soundtracks from last year.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: I’d be fine with this category being totally comprised of songs from KPop Demon Hunters. Alas, only one made it onto the shortlist, but “Your Idol” or “Soda Pop” especially would have made for worthy nominees. At the very least, it would’ve provided a great opportunity to watch the songs performed during the show.

Best Casting

• Will Win: A brand new category means very little understanding of what will take home the win. Given the love for the film, the SAG Ensemble win, and the legendary career of casting director Francine Maisler, I’d be surprised if anything but Sinners won here.
• Should Win: The Safdie brothers have made a career out of utilizing nonprofessional and mostly unknown actors, and Marty Supreme continues that tradition. Beyond the main cast including Chalamet, Odessa A’zion, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Kevin O’Leary, the film is full of left-field choices that feel like a natural part of Marty’s world.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s an unenviable task for anyone to cast Clark Kent, but Superman nailed it with David Corenswet as the Man of Steel. Besides the lead, the film was populated with under-represented but capable stars like Rachel Brosnahan, Nicholas Hoult, Isabela Merced, Skyler Gisonda, and more.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Will Win: The prosthetic work on The Creature in Frankenstein went a long way in making the film feel so visceral. As he transforms from new creation to his status later in the film, the makeup changes and evolves. Guillermo del Toro’s dedication to technical finesse shows, and it’ll be rightly rewarded on Oscar night.
• Should Win: One of the surprise nominations on Oscar morning shouldn’t go overlooked when the winner is announced. Kokuho is a film concerned with the literal application of makeup necessary for performing kabuki theater, and its varied looks are crucial to its success.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Besides the gore and blood inherent in horror films, the makeup work on Amy Madigan in Weapons instantly stood out. To some extent, it’s understandable why the film was snubbed, but the creative, unique look of Aunt Gladys helped to establish the menace of her character.

Best Costume Design

• Will Win: If I wanted to be bold, I’d pick 2-time Oscar winner Ruth E. Carter to take it home here. But Sinners doesn’t have the stand-out costumes that the Black Panther films did. If Sinners doesn’t have a big night, expect Frankenstein, and all its Victorian trappings, to take home the prize here. Guillermo del Toro is nothing if not a master of technical crafts, and Frankenstein‘s costumes were bombastic and intricately detailed. The film took home the coveted prize at the Costume Designers Guild, so a win wouldn’t be entirely out of the question.
• Should Win: I’m not particularly passionate about any of the nominees this year. Hamnet fulfilled the period trappings which are often found here, though they’re not terribly memorable. The same for Marty Supreme as the “men in suits” film. Sinners‘ virtuoso one-take musical sequence featured a number of flashy costumes, but were otherwise unremarkable. And though I appreciate the left-field kookiness of the Avatar: Fire and Ash nomination, it’d never get my vote. So let’s just go with Frankenstein as a worthy winner.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: The Academy went so far out of their way to make sure Wicked: For Good went home empty-handed. In some cases it was deserved, but not so for its costumes, which continued the exquisite fantasy details from the first film without feeling repetitive.

Best Sound

• Will Win: F1 has swept the Sound categories and guilds all season, so there’s little reason to believe it will fall short of the finish line. Joseph Kosinski’s dedication to verisimilitude helped make the film’s racing sequences feel immersive, putting the audience squarely in the driver’s seat and feeling every shift and turn of the car.
• Should Win: Kudos to the Academy for recognizing the important role that sound plays in Sirat. Even if I wasn’t a fan of the film overall, I have to give props for a film that utilizes sound to envelope the viewer in the chaotically unpredictable rave scene.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Much like Civil War last year, Warfare was done no favors by A24, as the film was mostly forgotten once awards season kicked into gear. No other film’s sound design felt as all-encompassing, making every gunshot, explosion, jet engine roar, and radio crackle feel like another character.

Best Film Editing

• Will Win: With crucial wins at ACE and BAFTA, One Battle After Another is poised for another win here. The film’s frenetic pacing and multi-directional storylines, Andy Jurgensen’s editing keeps the story moving and easy to follow.
• Should Win: Sentimental Value weaves together different time periods, characters, and settings, to create an experience that doesn’t drag or feel like it’s going on too long. The Oscars tend to award films with the most editing, and while Oliver Bugge Coutte’s work is efficient and smartly executed, it’s not flashy or showy.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Nobody is making editing choices in modern cinema better than Kim Sang-bum and Kim Ho-bin, the editors of Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice. Immaculate transitions, unexpected juxtapositions, and thrilling pacing remain the gold standard, but go unheralded once again.

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Ludwig Göransson will collect his third Oscar since 2018 for Sinners, further cementing himself as one of the best composers of all time. That the backbone of the film revolves around the joy of music certainly doesn’t hurt his chances, but his infusion of all different eras and genres of music is a big part of what audiences love about Göransson’s work.
• Should Win: I don’t know what more Johnny Greenwood needs to do to win an Oscar, but his work on One Battle After Another shouldn’t be ignored. From the first frame of the film, Greenwood sets the mood for an epic, chaotic struggle of good versus evil. Alas, PTA’s regular collaborator will likely have to wait at least one more time to receive his dues.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Call it a simple retread of his work on the Oceans trilogy if you will, but David Holmes’ work in Black Bag was delightfully jazzy, a tonal rebuke to the intricate spy work on screen. Soderbergh’s work has been criminally under-represented by the Academy in recent years, and his collaboration with Holmes deserves to be recognized.

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Production design looks to be yet another below-the-line category where Frankenstein will clean up. Between the gothic splendor of Victor’s laboratory, any number of extravagant props, or the sailing ship created in whole for the film, the Academy will surely feel good about awarding an original vision for an old classic.
• Should Win: How Jack Fisk still has yet to win an Academy Award remains a mystery to me. His work on Marty Supreme may not have been his most extravagant, compared to, say, Killers of the Flower Moon, but it was no less impressive. Filming in New York (not as common as you’d think) and turning it into 1952, along with all the other international settings, cemented Fisk’s status as a legend within the industry.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It seems that the Academy has fully moved on from awarding Wes Anderson, but The Phoenician Scheme continued his impeccable track record in production design. His latest utilizes a new time period and settings than his previous films, a newly rich tapestry to add to his filmography.

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: Death, taxes, and Avatar winning the Oscar for visual effects. Fire and Ash did nothing to dispel this notion, with some of the most incredible imagery you’ll ever see on the big screen. New creatures, locations, and action sequences all blend together perfectly to bring James Cameron’s bonkers vision to life.
• Should Win: It’s clear that the Academy and, to some extent, moviegoing audiences, have Avatar fatigue, but this shouldn’t discount the never-better VFX work within Fire and Ash. I liked the impressive fire effects within The Lost Bus, but I can’t deny how frequently my jaw dropped during both theater viewings of James Cameron’s latest.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: The only reason to make a live-action version of How to Train Your Dragon is to show off the visual effects, and Dreamworks justified the often fruitless endeavor with some of the best visual effects of the year. The animated dragons looked both lifelike and cartoonish, and they were well integrated with the real human characters

Best Cinematography

• Will Win: With crucial wins at ASC, BSC, and BAFTA, Michael Bauman is all but set to win here for his work on One Battle After Another. It may not be the flashiest nominee, but its notable resurrection of VistaVision, along with the spectacle of the car chase finale, makes it a worthy winner for the film.
• Should Win: Even those who were less passionate about Train Dreams overall noted that the cinematography was stunning, worthy of being seen on the big screen. Adolpho Veloso’s naturalistic photography called to mind Terrence Malick’s best work, a dreamy haze that transcends the narrative on the page.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It may not have been the most technically polished, but 28 Years Later was no less impressive. Shot mostly on iPhone, and utilizing a newly-conceived “bullet time”-esque rig, Anthony Dod Mantle continued the series’ use of distinctive photography and experimental techniques.

Best International Feature

• Will Win: For the first time in forever, this race is wide open. With two Best Picture nominees in Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent – plus the presumably 11th-place nominee It Was Just an Accident – there’s no real indicator as to what will win. Sentimental Value has the nomination strength, but The Secret Agent has a slight momentum advantage, and the Brazilian fervor. But I’ll go with Sentimental Value mostly because of the surprise nominations it received, including Editing, Director, and 4 in the acting categories.
• Should Win: I love almost all of the nominees this year, so picking only one “should win” is more difficult than most years. Given the recent events within Iran and the world, it would make a great statement from the Academy to reward It Was Just an Accident.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: How did Netflix whiff on getting a nomination for Left-Handed Girl? Last year’s Oscar darling, Sean Baker, was heavily involved, but it also contained a grounded, feel-good story with naturalistic performances and tangible stakes.

Best Documentary Feature

• Will Win: Picking a winner here is as difficult as it has been in years past. The Perfect Neighbor is the critical favorite, but there are reportedly some issues with the ethics of how it was made. Mr. Nobody Against Putin won the BAFTA, and speaks to recent winners like Navalny and 20 Days in Mariupol. I’ll stick with Netflix’s entry, The Perfect Neighbor.
• Should Win: The Alabama Solution draws some comparison to The Perfect Neighbor in its condemnation of modern America. Filmed in secret through smuggled cell phones at great personal risk to inmates in Alabama prisons, the film is an infuriating look at the inhumane treatment prisoners face simply because we can.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Call me a softie for movies about the creative process, but I found Megadoc, the behind-the-scenes documentary about the making of Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, to be entrancing. It’s one thing to see the fruits of a passion project play out in full, but it’s another thing entirely to see the blood, sweat, tears, and Shia Lebeouf that goes into making that passion into a reality. You don’t need to be a fan of Megalopolis to enjoy Megadoc, but the film offers a look into filmmaking and madness that isn’t seen often enough.

Best Animated Feature

• Will Win: You don’t become a chart-topping, word-of-mouth global phenomenon like KPop Demon Hunters without winning an Oscar. Even without the catchy pop tunes, the film features a smartly rendered message about shame and self-worth. It doesn’t hurt that it’s well animated and utilizes great vocal performances across the board.
• Should Win: Few animated films were as fun as KPop Demon Hunters in 2025, and yes, I’m factoring in the sing-along experience I had with my 7-year old in the theater. I’m glad that the underseen Little Amelie or the Character of Rain received recognition, as it’s the most uniquely stylized of the bunch, and is a thoughtful adaptation of a memoir.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: I’m not alone in admitting that 2025 was a weak year for animated films, so finding an also-ran here was a bit of a tough task. Since I haven’t seen the other global animated phenomenon of last year, Ne Zha II, I’ll say that The Bad Guys 2 would have made for a worthy nominee. Sure, it wasn’t as great as the first film, but it retained the same chaotic energy and spirit that worked so well the first time around.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: One Battle After Another hasn’t lost this season in any screenplay categories, so a win here is all but guaranteed. PTA’s loose interpretation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel, updating the story and characters for modern times and utilizing current events and talking points is nothing if not a feat of adaptation.
• Should Win: Train Dreams caught a mild amount of flack for changes made from Denis Johnson’s original novel, but I found Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s adaptation to dig deeper into its themes and characters. Rather than a thoughtful but straightforward story about an ordinary man’s misadventures, Train Dreams becomes a poignant meditation on time and ambition.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: The previous two entries in the Knives Out franchise managed to score screenplay nominations, so why was Wake Up Dead Man left in the cold? It seems that Netflix turned the page quickly and unfairly after the film’s release, but Rian Johnson’s third entry stood out because of its thematic depth and continued subversion of the murder-mystery genre. Whereas the first two films relied more on plot twists, the third Benoit Blanc mystery concerned itself with a crisis of faith

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: Much like its Warner Bros. counterpart, Sinners hasn’t lost a step this season in the screenplay race. The Original Screenplay winner of late has often been the “cool” choice, a recognition of originality for a potential future Best Picture winner. One can see Coogler taking home the top prize one day, but he’ll surely feel good about a win here.
• Should Win: Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein’s screenplay for Marty Supreme presents itself as a bracing character study up front, but contains many layered statements about ambition, the American Dream, and post-WWII Jewish identity.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Nobody has their finger on the pulse of modern internet culture better than Kiyoshi Kurosawa. His screenplay for Cloud touched on how being online has rotted our collective brains, while simultaneously being full of humor, action, and suspense.

Best Supporting Actor

• Will Win: Sean Penn took a roundabout way, but his recent wins at the Actor Awards and BAFTA came at the right time. His performance in One Battle After Another is transformative, funny, sad, and terrifying – sometimes all at once. Stunningly (and perhaps smartly), Penn has done little campaigning for his role, letting the work speak for itself, and the industry has still rewarded him, indicating an inherent love for the performance and the work.
• Should Win: Last I checked, there’s no way for the Academy to retroactively award a performance that previously missed a nomination. Delroy Lindo was famously snubbed for his gravitational performance in Da 5 Bloods, so to award him for his work in Sinners would be appropriate, even if it’s for the wrong film.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: A true supporting performance lasting only a couple scenes, William H. Macy’s appearance in Train Dreams suited the film and its tone perfectly. Macy has made a career out of playing wrong-headed buffoons, but his work as a kind of transient storyteller who crosses paths with Joel Edgerton fits the time period and Clint Bentley’s vision for the film.

Best Supporting Actress

• Will Win: In a season dominated by chaos within this category specifically – where a different actress has won each of the major precursors – making a prediction is increasingly difficult. So I’ll stick with the tried and true formula of relying on the presumed Best Picture winner, and give the edge to Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another.
• Should Win: Maybe it’s just my inherent love of actors playing actors, but I thoroughly appreciated Elle Fanning’s work in Sentimental Value. What could have been a simple depiction of a washed-up over-hyped actress becomes something much more complicated, instead feeling like a capable performer in search of validation of her own talents and ambition.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Pamela Anderson drew Oscar buzz in 2024 for her work in The Last Showgirl, but it’s her performance in The Naked Gun which rightfully deserved attention. She’s always been able to sport a comedic side, but she fully commits to every silly bit that the film asks of her. Whether it’s delivering clever wordplay, silly physical comedy, or desperately scatting in a jazz club, Anderson made the most of her screen time in a film that didn’t come within a country mile of the Academy’s radar, but was no less worthy.

Best Actor

• Will Win: After Timothee Chalamet dominated headlines, social media, and early awards for his performance in Marty Supreme, Michael B. Jordan has surged at just the right time. Delivering an impassioned speech to a rapturous audience after accepting the Actor Award for his performance in Sinners – right in the middle of Oscar voting, no less – Jordan is in the stronger Best Picture contender.
• Should Win: Of course, there’s still a world where Chalamet pulls through for Marty Supreme. And he’s who I’ve rooted for all season, as he gives a virtuoso performance which the entire film hinges on. If anyone else had even a smidge less charisma, the film wouldn’t work nearly as well. Chalamet is passionate about his craft, and this would be the perfect opportunity to reward him for it.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Perhaps he’ll be on the stage next year for his performance in Digger, but Tom Cruise’s true passion came to a head in Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. Sure, his work mostly boiled down to hanging off airplanes, but he still had to stay in character while doing so.

Best Actress

• Will Win: At least one of the best acting categories has a safe front-runner amongst the chaos. Jessie Buckley hasn’t lost in any precursors for her performance in Hamnet, and there’s no reason to think she’ll falter at the last minute. As Agnes Shakespeare, Buckley gets to play a whole host of emotions, from anger to sadness to confidence and confusion, and she pulls it off effortlessly.
• Should Win: In a relatively weak field, I can’t deny Buckley’s work in Hamnet. I’ve been a fan of nearly every performance of hers since she broke onto the scene in Wild Rose, and she’ll make for a deserving winner who has the capacity to win many more times throughout her still young career.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Chase Infiniti’s role in One Battle After Another was great, but arguably belonged in the Supporting Actress field. I wasn’t as openly passionate about Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee (though I frequently love her work). But Sydney Sweeney was fantastic in Christy, giving the kind of old-school performance that used to be automatic: physical, transformational, and complicated. Even when the film stumbled, Sweeney managed to roll with it.

Best Director

• Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most celebrated auteurs without an Oscar win under his belt. Whether One Battle After Another wins any other Oscars or not, his win for Best Director is all but assured. Even if he didn’t have the “overdue” narrative at his back, his filmmaking prowess is on full display here, a shining example of efficient directing. Oh, and he hasn’t lost this award all season.
• Should Win: Yes, I love PTA and think he’s more than deserving of being recognized by his peers and the Academy for his directing in One Battle After Another (but let’s be honest, it should have happened for There Will Be Blood). The Academy has never awarded a Black director before, so if Ryan Coogler were to take home the prize for his bold, original work in Sinners, I wouldn’t complain.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: James Sweeney’s work on Twinless is an impressive bit of screenwriting and acting, but it’s his direction which deserves recognition. The visual style that Sweeney employs makes this relatively straightforward story of grief have a distinctive flair that shows he has an instinctive knack for evocative imagery.

Best Picture

• Will Win: When One Battle After Another premiered to near universal praise, it felt like the stars were aligned for PTA to finally receive his overdue recognition from the Academy. Beyond the metatextual narrative, the film urgently speaks to our present-day political reality. A Best Picture Oscar winner doesn’t need to reflect the times we live in, but One Battle After Another would be a perfect reflection of our messy, chaotic, hopeful reality. Some pundits now believe the overwhelming nomination haul for Sinners means it could still take the top prize, but PTA’s film hasn’t missed when it’s needed to so far. I’m sticking with the French 75.
• Should Win: Yes, Train Dreams was my favorite film of 2025, but few things would make me as happy as seeing PTA finally receive his overdue recognition and win for One Battle After Another. The former spoke to my current mindset and station in life, but the latter will stand the test of time and be recognized as a generational film.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s not a stretch to say that It Was Just an Accident likely landed at 11th place in Best Picture voting, given the international love for Jafar Panahi. The Iranian auteur has crafted a story that transcends borders and genres, a thought-provoking, existential but funny fable about justice and morality. Alas, Panahi will simply have to settle for winning the Palme d’Or.