Hollywood’s biggest night, the 98th Academy Awards, is mere days away. One of the most chaotic and wide-open races in recent memory will soon be over, and we’ll finally know who will forever be known as “Oscar winner”. Here’s a comprehensive list of predicted winners, what would receive my vote if I had one, and what should have received a nomination in each category.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Will Win: 2024’s crop of nominees is uniquely situated compared to previous years: none of the nominees feature A-list stars in front of, or behind, the camera, and the only celebrity producers listed are Priyanka Chopra-Jonas and Mindy Kaling for Anuja. This film is also the only nominee that plays on a streaming service (Netflix), which only happened recently. Also, none of the films concern WWII or the Holocaust, which are verifiable catnip to Academy voters in the category. But given its unfortunate topicality – and because it’s the only short of the category in English – A Lien feels like a likely winner.
• Should Win: At the very least, I’m Not a Robot shows that the Live-Action Short category doesn’t have to feature dour, bleak subject matter. The film takes a thoroughly relatable conundrum and twists it to its logical conclusion, while managing to create memorable characters along the way.

Best Documentary Short Film

• Will Win: Documentary Short could be a make-or-break category for your Oscar pool this year. Will the Academy go for the more traditional (and more widely predicted) The Only Girl in the Orchestra, or the formally daring but politically relevant Incident? Recent trends suggest the Academy will go for the less topical, more feel-good film, so that suggests The Only Girl in the Orchestra as the favorite.
• Should Win: No other nominee in this category got my blood boiling quite like Incident, one of the more unique offerings in recent memory. The film utilizes body cam and surveillance footage to present an unbiased recounting of a police execution, and has stuck with me the longest since first viewing.

Best Animated Short Film

• Will Win: Much like the Live Action Short category, most of the typical indicators are unfortunately missing to predict a winner in Animated Short this year. None of the nominees are from a major studio like Disney or Pixar. None are available on a streaming service. None feature Hollywood star talent in creative roles or as voice actors. Wander to Wonder has a BAFTA win, but I think Yuck! could win here because it goes down smoothly, it has an eye-grabbing title, and it’s one of the few nominees that the Academy members could watch with their kids.
• Should Win: In the Shadow of the Cypress is as close to a total package within the category: eye-catching animation, an emotionally resonant story, and a unique statement from its creative team. A win, though unlikely, would be well-deserved.

Best Original Song

• Will Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez has cleaned up in the few precursors available, so it’s likely to win here as well. That the song is one of the more memorable, and memorably constructed, set pieces of the film doesn’t hurt either.
• Should Win: By virtue of being the only nominee from a film that I liked, I’ll say that “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing would be a worthy winner (even if I have no recollection of what the song sounds like or when it comes in to the film).
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot was a surprising omission on Oscar nomination morning, and would have made for a decent challenger. The song comes at the emotional climax of the film (not during the end credits), and is a certified earworm.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Will Win: You can’t have an effective body horror film without outstanding craftsmanship. Academy voters loves creative prosthetics – just look at recent winners The Whale and Poor Things. The use of prosthetics in The Substance, and how crucial they are to the sensation of the film, all but guarantees it a win.
• Should Win: Robert Eggers’ vision for Count Orlok in Nosferatu was one of cinema’s best kept secrets in 2024, and its final reveal was a feat of makeup. Beyond the main vampire prosthetics, the film is abundant with creative makeup and hairstyling work.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Tim Burton’s return in Beetlejuice Beetlejuice valued practical effects over CGI for the first time in too long. The result was a cavalcade of creatively realized original characters that added necessary depth for each new creature and person within the underworld.

Best Costume Design

• Will Win: Based on the sheer breadth and creativity of costumes on display, Wicked is the front-runner here. Recent wins at various guilds, CCA, and BAFTA, along with a general love for the film in nominations across the board, all but assure the film a win.
• Should Win: Aside from the main characters, nearly everyone we see is sporting a unique statement piece worth noticing throughout Wicked. Sure, technically the film has the stage show – and The Wizard of Oz – to lean on, but that doesn’t make the end result any less impressive.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Hundreds of Beavers became the word-of-mouth hit of 2024, and its increasingly silly costumes were only part of the fun. From each of the animal costumes to those of the human characters, Hundreds of Beavers showed that costumes don’t need to be elaborate or expensively crafted in order to be effective.

Best Sound

• Will Win: Dune: Part Two utilized original sci-fi sounds, plus the requisite explosions which the Academy loves, to create a booming cinematic feeling. Though it’s not a clear front-runner, the film’s win at BAFTA puts it ahead by a nose.
• Should Win: Since 3 of the 5 nominees are essentially musicals, I think The Wild Robot would make for a very cool winner. The film’s use of animal noises, creative robotic sounds, and all of the action elements in the third act went a long way in making a total tonal experience.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: If there’s one thing the Sound branch of the Academy gravitates towards, it’s explosions and gunfire. The entire third act of Alex Garland’s Civil War was almost completely made up of gunfire and explosions and chaotic moments, providing one of the loudest theater experiences of the year. Overall sentiment towards the film was divisive, but it’s hard to argue against the immersive sound design of what Garland was able to put together.

Best Film Editing

• Will Win: This is another genuine toss-up category between three or four nominees. With a win at BAFTA, Conclave has the momentum, but Anora has arguably the “most” editing, which tends to win over the Academy. If the voting body is feeling generous towards Anora, or especially wants to reward nominee Sean Baker, a win here would easily signal a big night for the film. I’ll give the edge to Conclave though, since the film essentially takes two hours of loaded conversations without any action sequences and creates a propulsive thriller. (Note that, unlike previous years, we won’t have the ACE Eddie Awards to assist in a prediction.)
• Should Win: Yes, Wicked‘s first half stretched as long as the runtime of the entirety of the stage play. But, for me, I never felt the film’s length, nor did it begin to sag at any moments in the second half – and the musical sequences, especially “What is This Feeling?” are energetically paced. So count this as a deserving win for Wicked.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Perhaps one day documentaries will receive their due recognition for editing. I remain impressed by Amy Foote’s work in Girls State, as she was tasked with not only combing through the endless footage, but crafting a number of compelling narratives into an engaging documentary.

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Daniel Blumberg’s sweeping, operatic score for The Brutalist is the kind of music that harkens back to Oscar winners of yore. The music adds necessary texture to complement the events on screen, often clashing and clanging outside its period trappings. Though Blumberg’s stiffest competition is Volker Bertelmann for Conclave, a previous winner for All Quiet on the Western Front, The Brutalist has picked up enough necessary wins to give it the edge.
• Should Win: Kris Bowers’ score for The Wild Robot is perhaps the most memorable of all of the nominees, hitting the gut in the big emotional swells of the film.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Long before I had even seen Challengers, people were raving about Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s thumping score. Perhaps the Academy has moved on from nominating the Oscar-winning duo, but this was the snub that hurt the most on nomination morning.

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Wicked saw Oz brought to life in a vibrant way, building off the original The Wizard of Oz to create a detailed, lived-in puzzle of sets and props. That the film has essentially cleaned up in precursors won’t stop it from winning here.
• Should Win: It feels a little crazy that a film like The Brutalist – a film literally about building structures in an artistic manner – isn’t walking away with a Production Design Oscar, but the Academy hasn’t always thought in these terms.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: I may have only seen a handful of Pedro Almodóvar’s recent films, but The Room Next Door was a gorgeous feat of production design. Every scene bursts with color and vibrancy, reflecting the melodramatic subject matter and existential journeys of the characters.

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: If there’s any sure bet on Oscar night, make it Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects. There was no film that looked as good on a big screen in 2024, and the visual effects were seamlessly incorporated to create an inventive spectacle. A worthy follow-up to a previous Oscar win for 2021’s Dune feels right.
• Should Win: Who am I kidding? Dune: Part Two had some of the best visual effects I’ve ever seen. Even in some of the better films incorporating CGI, there remains a moment where the seems begin to show and what you’re seeing is clearly fake. That was never the case with Dune: Part Two, even with the more fantastical elements.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: In a year when the visual effects offerings were fairly shallow, A Quiet Place: Day One deserves credit for its continued excellence not just in monster mayhem, but in essentially destroying New York City. Yes, the sound is often the more notable technical element in the A Quiet Place franchise, but its CGI work shouldn’t go unnoticed.

Best Cinematography

• Will Win: Nosferatu has the slightest momentum in terms of precursor wins, but The Brutalist is the favorite with a Best Picture nomination. Lol Crowley’s cinematography is gorgeous throughout the film, and utilizes the landscapes and production design smartly.
• Should Win: Sure, we technically already saw and rewarded Greig Fraser for his work in the Dune films. But what he was able to do with Dune: Part Two resulted in some of the most captivating imagery in film last year. The film was appointment viewing on the biggest screen possible, and it’s mostly thanks to the film’s cinematography.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Eric Yue’s neon-soaked cinematography in I Saw the TV Glow went a long way in creating the film’s unique atmosphere. The aesthetic fits not only the film’s period setting but the foreboding sense of dread around every corner, and went mostly unrecognized throughout much of the film’s awards campaign.

Best International Feature

• Will Win: What is usually a slam-dunk prediction has been thrown an interesting curveball this year, as International Feature comes down to I’m Still Here versus Emilia Pérez. Both are Best Picture nominees (a first), and both are clearly beloved. Neither film would surprise me for a win, but because of the recent nosedive in goodwill for Emilia Pérez, and because of its late-breaking momentum in attention, I’ll sheepishly predict I’m Still Here.
• Should Win: Mohamed Rasoulof deserves more credit for what he was able to accomplish with The Seed of the Sacred Fig. One of 2024’s best film narratives was in how Rasoulof had to make the film in secret and fled Iran in order to get it seen. Filmmaking has rarely ever been so brave.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Pakistan’s entry, The Glassworker, represents a major milestone for global cinema. The first ever hand-drawn animated film from the country was barely seen but was no less worthy of recognition. Do yourself a favor and seek it out wherever possible.

Best Documentary Feature

• Will Win: Recent winners of the Documentary Feature Oscar have been nothing if not topical reflections of global situations. This category stands as a two-horse race between No Other Land and Porcelain War. The former is the buzzier, more passionate film with no US distribution, but is a bit of a political buzzsaw. Porcelain War mirrors other recent winners like 20 Days in Mariupol and Navalny, and has a DGA win. I won’t be surprised if either wins, but I’ll pick Porcelain War.
• Should Win: In an era when bad people can and do get away with almost anything, Black Box Diaries presented an easy, crowd-pleasing watch as one woman fights for justice against her rapist – a well-connected official in the Japanese government. If only the concept didn’t feel so foreign in America, the film could maybe stand a better chance at winning.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Africa has been severely underrepresented at the Oscars, and Dahomey would have made for a worthwhile nomination. Mati Diop’s documentary was one of the most thoughtful, distinctly executed films of 2024, examining a current event that stretches far outside the continent of Africa.

Best Animated Feature

• Will Win: For the second year in a row, the Animated Feature race is actually competitive, and in similar ways to last year. Will the Academy favor the box office and critical success of The Wild Robot, or will they prefer the international appeal of Flow? The former received one more nomination than the latter, with a surprise nomination for Best Sound. As I said last year, neither film deserves to go home empty handed, but The Wild Robot has the slight edge.
• Should Win: Yes, I like The Wild Robot better, but a win for Flow would be a huge win for independent animation, which rarely even gets a seat at the Oscars table. The film comes almost exclusively from Gints Zilbalodis, and the result feels appropriately singular. Besides, The Wild Robot director Chris Sanders has the opportunity to make more Oscar-worthy adaptations of Peter Brown’s series of novels.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Is Transformers One a great film? Maybe not, but it’s perhaps the best Transformers movie, and much better than it had any right to be, exceeding expectations to be a poignant story of friendship and loyalty. I’ll take a thousand of these over any more live-action Michael Bay versions.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: Conclave has not missed in any major precursors, and I see no reason to doubt its chances at the Oscars. Peter Straughan’s adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel made few changes but was no less thrillingly plotted, with three-dimensional characters and thought-provoking twists.
• Should Win: Obviously I have a deep love for Nickel Boys and want it to win at the few places where it was nominated. But if I’m in the mood to spread the love, I can’t help but admire the work of adaptation within Sing Sing. To take a real-life story and create such memorable characters, and definable stakes is no small accomplishment.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: On that note, Richard Linklater and Glen Powell’s work in adapting a Texas Monthly article to create Hit Man resulted in pure joy. A flashy mash-up of tones, styles, and genres, Linklater’s film was a feat of adaptation and storytelling.

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: For the first time in forever, Original Screenplay is as close to a 4-horse race as possible (sorry, September 5). The win for A Real Pain at BAFTA and WGA complicates matters, but I think the Best Picture front-runner status, plus all the precursor wins, puts things in Anora‘s favor.
• Should Win: More than his acting and directing, I walked away from A Real Pain impressed with Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay. His ability to subvert expectations for a film’s subject matter which often leans into easy sentimentality should be commended.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s easy to pigeon-hole His Three Daughters as a film that feels like a stage play. No matter, Azazel Jacobs’s screenplay was full of realistically rendered characters and conversations that existed outside the confines of the format.

Best Supporting Actor

• Will Win: Though his film lacks a Best Picture nomination (and though he’s technically the co-lead of the film), Kieran Culkin has gone unchallenged all season for his work in A Real Pain. Culkin is a beloved performer, gives fantastic acceptance speeches, and is uniquely vulnerable in the film, so it’s a win that the Academy will feel good about.
• Should Win: Culkin’s former Succession castmate, Jeremy Strong, gives a characteristically sound performance as the modern American embodiment of evil, Roy Cohn, in The Apprentice. His third-act heel turn remains one that has stuck with me since finally watching the film, and it’s no coincidence that the film sags in momentum when he exits after the midway point.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Chris Hemsworth made a meal out of his role as the villain in Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, turning in his best performance to date. Yes, the film should have received some love elsewhere, especially in its technical elements, but Hemsworth stood above them all.

Best Supporting Actress

• Will Win: Zoe Saldaña has gone unchallenged throughout awards season for her work in Emilia Pérez. Even if she should actually belong in Lead Actress, and regardless of the crumbling love for the film, Saldaña carries the emotions of the film, and is a beloved actress amongst her peers. This is one of the surest bets across the entire ceremony.
• Should Win: My first comparison when watching Ariana Grande in Wicked was of Ariana DeBose in West Side Story. Just like with DeBose, Grande’s is a charismatic, energetic performance that was tailor-made to win awards. Perhaps the Academy is holding space for Wicked: For Good to award Grande for her fun, bubbly portrayal of Galinda the Good Witch.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Every time I’ve watched Nickel Boys, I continue to be floored by Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s performance. Perhaps her role wasn’t prominent enough for the Academy, or the technical and storytelling elements stood out more, but the work speaks for itself.

Best Actor

• Will Win: Emma Stone’s win last year for Poor Things showed that the Academy cares less about anointing new stars than rewarding favored performances. And the recent spate of biopic performances losing bodes better for Adrien Brody to win for his searing performance in The Brutalist over Timothée Chalamet.
• Should Win: Ralph Fiennes is one of those actors who feels like he should easily have at least one Oscar win under his belt by now. His work in Conclave may very well be the best of his long career, as his character carries the weight of the world on his shoulders. Perhaps it’s fitting, given the narrative of Conclave, that Fiennes was the front-runner early in the season and now feels like a distant contender.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s not often when an Oscar nominee feels like he was overlooked by himself, but Sebastian Stan could have and should have been nominated for his work in A Different Man. Stan gets to be funny, emotional, sympathetic, and pathetic – sometimes all at once – while revealing new sides to himself that he hasn’t shown before.

Best Actress

• Will Win: Demi Moore has the career narrative, plus a host of televised award wins (including Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG) to carry her to an easy win. Oh yea, and she’s fantastic in The Substance, fully buying in to every deranged direction that the film goes in. Not to be overlooked: there’s been an unavoidable correlation since 2021 between the winner of Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Lead Actor/Actress. Since The Substance is the strong favorite to win there, it gives Moore the edge in my eyes.
• Should Win: Mikey Madison commands the screen from the opening minutes of Anora until the end. Though it feels like her chances have faded recently, a win here would be a sure sign that the film wins Best Picture, and would be an anointing of Madison as a bona fide star of the future.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Even being a Mike Leigh neophyte, Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s performance in Hard Truths was one of the most captivating of 2024. What she was able to do – mostly via improv, reportedly – by crafting such an unlikeable but sympathetic character was an Oscar-worthy feat if there ever was one.

Best Director

• Will Win: A category that’s usually a sure thing is a much closer race this year, in a race between Anora‘s Sean Baker, and The Brutalist‘s Brady Corbet. Baker has the DGA win – which typically predicts the Oscar over anything else – but Corbet has wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. Since Anora stands a better chance at a Best Picture win, I’ll predict Baker.
• Should Win: I still don’t know how Brady Corbet pulled off what he did with The Brutalist under the constraints he had. That he was able to craft a 215-minute period epic with a 30 day production schedule and less than 10 million dollars is one of the great directorial achievements in some time, and deserves proper recognition.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Perhaps it was just wishful thinking, but there was a minute where Payal Kapadia could have surprised for her work on All We Imagine as Light. Nevertheless, the film remains a feat of Kapadia’s direction, and a unique, personal statement – and one of the best films of 2024.

Best Picture

• Will Win: One of the most chaotic and wide-open Best Picture races in recent memory will soon come to a merciful close. Its front-runner status went through ebbs and flows since winning the Palme d’Or last year, but it feels like Anora has finally emerged as the front-runner after decisive wins at Critics Choice and PGA (the only other precursor which also uses the preferential ballot system). Conclave feels like it’s right behind Anora, and has widely been seen as a “safe” bet for most of the season, so if any other film stands a chance, place your bet there.
• Should Win: If the Oscars were all about pure artistry, Nickel Boys would be a runaway winner in many categories. RaMell Ross’s unique vision for Colson Whitehead’s novel speaks to America’s past while looking at our present circumstances and asking us to look inward at ourselves. There are some Best Picture winners that speak more to their current times, and there are those that stand the test of time. Nickel Boys does both.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Before nominations were announced, A Real Pain was safely in as a Best Picture nominee amongst most Oscar pundits’ predictions. That the film likely ended up in eleventh place is no small comfort, but it remains one of the best of 2024.