Hollywood’s biggest night, the 98th Academy Awards, is mere days away. Though the top categories like Best Picture and Best Director have been essentially decided for months, there still remains a number of debatable toss-ups in several categories. This year also introduces a brand new category: Best Casting, a kind of reward for the casting directors who find hidden gems and utilize actors’ star personas, which could make or break your Oscar pool. Here’s a comprehensive list of predicted winners, what would receive my vote if I had one, and what should have received a nomination in each category.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva has two of the three factors which often wins the day amongst the shorts: an intriguing title, and a premise which feels like a possible audition for a feature-length expansion (the third being star power). Besides these factors, the film is written, shot, and performed beautifully, with a bizarre but touching hook that quickly and effectively draws viewers in.
• Should Win: Jane Austen’s Period Drama may only traffic in one or two jokes, but those jokes are solid enough to carry a short film without any grander ambitions. Though Julia Aks and Steve Pinder have spared no expense in making the film feel authentic to the period (no pun intended) which it’s skewering.

Best Documentary Short Film

• Will Win: Netflix usually goes home with at least one award amongst the short films, and All the Empty Rooms (distributed by Netflix) fits that bill. It’s also the most broadly appealing, concerning a prescient subject that all Americans should get behind.
• Should Win: The Devil is Busy tackles a hot-button topic in an unexpected, sympathetic way. By focusing less on the controversial work within a women’s health clinic, and more on the person tasked with protecting it, the film shows the under-represented cost of ensuring the work gets done.

Best Animated Short Film

• Will Win: Of all three of the short film categories this year, this is the one I’m most conflicted towards. Butterfly has incredible animation, where literally every frame is an individual painting. Retirement Plan is a broadly appealing, funny film with a celebrity (Domhall Gleeson) narrating. The Girl Who Cried Pearls features some lovely stop-motion animation. Forevergreen scratches that itch for those wanting for a Disney/Pixar entry. For the sake of simplicity, I’ll go with Butterfly; it’s also a true story about a man who survived the Holocaust, which is often like catnip to Academy voters.
• Should Win: Sure, Retirement Plan didn’t have the most distinctive animation, but it’s the most enjoyable from beginning to end. Who among us hasn’t pondered a wish list of things to do once we finally have the freedom to actually get them done?

Best Original Song

• Will Win: We haven’t seen the likes of a song like “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters since the days of “Shallow” or “What Was I Made For?” – a chart-topping crossover hit, and a genuine earworm. Never mind the host of Grammy nominations and wins that the animated film also scored. Few categories feel as inevitable as this one.
• Should Win: “I Lied to You” from Sinners comes from one of the best scenes of 2025, but let’s be real. “Golden” is a banger song from a film full of certified bangers. Of course, I’d take a Train Dreams win wherever I could get it, but I’ve listened to the KPop Demon Hunters songs many more times than I have any other soundtracks from last year.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: I’d be fine with this category being totally comprised of songs from KPop Demon Hunters. Alas, only one made it onto the shortlist, but “Your Idol” or “Soda Pop” especially would have made for worthy nominees. At the very least, it would’ve provided a great opportunity to watch the songs performed during the show.

Best Casting

• Will Win: A brand new category means very little understanding of what will take home the win. Given the love for the film, the SAG Ensemble win, and the legendary career of casting director Francine Maisler, I’d be surprised if anything but Sinners won here.
• Should Win: The Safdie brothers have made a career out of utilizing nonprofessional and mostly unknown actors, and Marty Supreme continues that tradition. Beyond the main cast including Chalamet, Odessa A’zion, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Kevin O’Leary, the film is full of left-field choices that feel like a natural part of Marty’s world.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s an unenviable task for anyone to cast Clark Kent, but Superman nailed it with David Corenswet as the Man of Steel. Besides the lead, the film was populated with under-represented but capable stars like Rachel Brosnahan, Nicholas Hoult, Isabela Merced, Skyler Gisonda, and more.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Will Win: The prosthetic work on The Creature in Frankenstein went a long way in making the film feel so visceral. As he transforms from new creation to his status later in the film, the makeup changes and evolves. Guillermo del Toro’s dedication to technical finesse shows, and it’ll be rightly rewarded on Oscar night.
• Should Win: One of the surprise nominations on Oscar morning shouldn’t go overlooked when the winner is announced. Kokuho is a film concerned with the literal application of makeup necessary for performing kabuki theater, and its varied looks are crucial to its success.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Besides the gore and blood inherent in horror films, the makeup work on Amy Madigan in Weapons instantly stood out. To some extent, it’s understandable why the film was snubbed, but the creative, unique look of Aunt Gladys helped to establish the menace of her character.

Best Costume Design

• Will Win: If I wanted to be bold, I’d pick 2-time Oscar winner Ruth E. Carter to take it home here. But Sinners doesn’t have the stand-out costumes that the Black Panther films did. If Sinners doesn’t have a big night, expect Frankenstein, and all its Victorian trappings, to take home the prize here. Guillermo del Toro is nothing if not a master of technical crafts, and Frankenstein‘s costumes were bombastic and intricately detailed. The film took home the coveted prize at the Costume Designers Guild, so a win wouldn’t be entirely out of the question.
• Should Win: I’m not particularly passionate about any of the nominees this year. Hamnet fulfilled the period trappings which are often found here, though they’re not terribly memorable. The same for Marty Supreme as the “men in suits” film. Sinners‘ virtuoso one-take musical sequence featured a number of flashy costumes, but were otherwise unremarkable. And though I appreciate the left-field kookiness of the Avatar: Fire and Ash nomination, it’d never get my vote. So let’s just go with Frankenstein as a worthy winner.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: The Academy went so far out of their way to make sure Wicked: For Good went home empty-handed. In some cases it was deserved, but not so for its costumes, which continued the exquisite fantasy details from the first film without feeling repetitive.

Best Sound

• Will Win: F1 has swept the Sound categories and guilds all season, so there’s little reason to believe it will fall short of the finish line. Joseph Kosinski’s dedication to verisimilitude helped make the film’s racing sequences feel immersive, putting the audience squarely in the driver’s seat and feeling every shift and turn of the car.
• Should Win: Kudos to the Academy for recognizing the important role that sound plays in Sirat. Even if I wasn’t a fan of the film overall, I have to give props for a film that utilizes sound to envelope the viewer in the chaotically unpredictable rave scene.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Much like Civil War last year, Warfare was done no favors by A24, as the film was mostly forgotten once awards season kicked into gear. No other film’s sound design felt as all-encompassing, making every gunshot, explosion, jet engine roar, and radio crackle feel like another character.

Best Film Editing

• Will Win: With crucial wins at ACE and BAFTA, One Battle After Another is poised for another win here. The film’s frenetic pacing and multi-directional storylines, Andy Jurgensen’s editing keeps the story moving and easy to follow.
• Should Win: Sentimental Value weaves together different time periods, characters, and settings, to create an experience that doesn’t drag or feel like it’s going on too long. The Oscars tend to award films with the most editing, and while Oliver Bugge Coutte’s work is efficient and smartly executed, it’s not flashy or showy.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Nobody is making editing choices in modern cinema better than Kim Sang-bum and Kim Ho-bin, the editors of Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice. Immaculate transitions, unexpected juxtapositions, and thrilling pacing remain the gold standard, but go unheralded once again.

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Ludwig Göransson will collect his third Oscar since 2018 for Sinners, further cementing himself as one of the best composers of all time. That the backbone of the film revolves around the joy of music certainly doesn’t hurt his chances, but his infusion of all different eras and genres of music is a big part of what audiences love about Göransson’s work.
• Should Win: I don’t know what more Johnny Greenwood needs to do to win an Oscar, but his work on One Battle After Another shouldn’t be ignored. From the first frame of the film, Greenwood sets the mood for an epic, chaotic struggle of good versus evil. Alas, PTA’s regular collaborator will likely have to wait at least one more time to receive his dues.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Call it a simple retread of his work on the Oceans trilogy if you will, but David Holmes’ work in Black Bag was delightfully jazzy, a tonal rebuke to the intricate spy work on screen. Soderbergh’s work has been criminally under-represented by the Academy in recent years, and his collaboration with Holmes deserves to be recognized.

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Production design looks to be yet another below-the-line category where Frankenstein will clean up. Between the gothic splendor of Victor’s laboratory, any number of extravagant props, or the sailing ship created in whole for the film, the Academy will surely feel good about awarding an original vision for an old classic.
• Should Win: How Jack Fisk still has yet to win an Academy Award remains a mystery to me. His work on Marty Supreme may not have been his most extravagant, compared to, say, Killers of the Flower Moon, but it was no less impressive. Filming in New York (not as common as you’d think) and turning it into 1952, along with all the other international settings, cemented Fisk’s status as a legend within the industry.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It seems that the Academy has fully moved on from awarding Wes Anderson, but The Phoenician Scheme continued his impeccable track record in production design. His latest utilizes a new time period and settings than his previous films, a newly rich tapestry to add to his filmography.

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: Death, taxes, and Avatar winning the Oscar for visual effects. Fire and Ash did nothing to dispel this notion, with some of the most incredible imagery you’ll ever see on the big screen. New creatures, locations, and action sequences all blend together perfectly to bring James Cameron’s bonkers vision to life.
• Should Win: It’s clear that the Academy and, to some extent, moviegoing audiences, have Avatar fatigue, but this shouldn’t discount the never-better VFX work within Fire and Ash. I liked the impressive fire effects within The Lost Bus, but I can’t deny how frequently my jaw dropped during both theater viewings of James Cameron’s latest.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: The only reason to make a live-action version of How to Train Your Dragon is to show off the visual effects, and Dreamworks justified the often fruitless endeavor with some of the best visual effects of the year. The animated dragons looked both lifelike and cartoonish, and they were well integrated with the real human characters

Best Cinematography

• Will Win: With crucial wins at ASC, BSC, and BAFTA, Michael Bauman is all but set to win here for his work on One Battle After Another. It may not be the flashiest nominee, but its notable resurrection of VistaVision, along with the spectacle of the car chase finale, makes it a worthy winner for the film.
• Should Win: Even those who were less passionate about Train Dreams overall noted that the cinematography was stunning, worthy of being seen on the big screen. Adolpho Veloso’s naturalistic photography called to mind Terrence Malick’s best work, a dreamy haze that transcends the narrative on the page.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It may not have been the most technically polished, but 28 Years Later was no less impressive. Shot mostly on iPhone, and utilizing a newly-conceived “bullet time”-esque rig, Anthony Dod Mantle continued the series’ use of distinctive photography and experimental techniques.

Best International Feature

• Will Win: For the first time in forever, this race is wide open. With two Best Picture nominees in Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent – plus the presumably 11th-place nominee It Was Just an Accident – there’s no real indicator as to what will win. Sentimental Value has the nomination strength, but The Secret Agent has a slight momentum advantage, and the Brazilian fervor. But I’ll go with Sentimental Value mostly because of the surprise nominations it received, including Editing, Director, and 4 in the acting categories.
• Should Win: I love almost all of the nominees this year, so picking only one “should win” is more difficult than most years. Given the recent events within Iran and the world, it would make a great statement from the Academy to reward It Was Just an Accident.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: How did Netflix whiff on getting a nomination for Left-Handed Girl? Last year’s Oscar darling, Sean Baker, was heavily involved, but it also contained a grounded, feel-good story with naturalistic performances and tangible stakes.

Best Documentary Feature

• Will Win: Picking a winner here is as difficult as it has been in years past. The Perfect Neighbor is the critical favorite, but there are reportedly some issues with the ethics of how it was made. Mr. Nobody Against Putin won the BAFTA, and speaks to recent winners like Navalny and 20 Days in Mariupol. I’ll stick with Netflix’s entry, The Perfect Neighbor.
• Should Win: The Alabama Solution draws some comparison to The Perfect Neighbor in its condemnation of modern America. Filmed in secret through smuggled cell phones at great personal risk to inmates in Alabama prisons, the film is an infuriating look at the inhumane treatment prisoners face simply because we can.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Call me a softie for movies about the creative process, but I found Megadoc, the behind-the-scenes documentary about the making of Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, to be entrancing. It’s one thing to see the fruits of a passion project play out in full, but it’s another thing entirely to see the blood, sweat, tears, and Shia Lebeouf that goes into making that passion into a reality. You don’t need to be a fan of Megalopolis to enjoy Megadoc, but the film offers a look into filmmaking and madness that isn’t seen often enough.

Best Animated Feature

• Will Win: You don’t become a chart-topping, word-of-mouth global phenomenon like KPop Demon Hunters without winning an Oscar. Even without the catchy pop tunes, the film features a smartly rendered message about shame and self-worth. It doesn’t hurt that it’s well animated and utilizes great vocal performances across the board.
• Should Win: Few animated films were as fun as KPop Demon Hunters in 2025, and yes, I’m factoring in the sing-along experience I had with my 7-year old in the theater. I’m glad that the underseen Little Amelie or the Character of Rain received recognition, as it’s the most uniquely stylized of the bunch, and is a thoughtful adaptation of a memoir.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: I’m not alone in admitting that 2025 was a weak year for animated films, so finding an also-ran here was a bit of a tough task. Since I haven’t seen the other global animated phenomenon of last year, Ne Zha II, I’ll say that The Bad Guys 2 would have made for a worthy nominee. Sure, it wasn’t as great as the first film, but it retained the same chaotic energy and spirit that worked so well the first time around.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: One Battle After Another hasn’t lost this season in any screenplay categories, so a win here is all but guaranteed. PTA’s loose interpretation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel, updating the story and characters for modern times and utilizing current events and talking points is nothing if not a feat of adaptation.
• Should Win: Train Dreams caught a mild amount of flack for changes made from Denis Johnson’s original novel, but I found Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s adaptation to dig deeper into its themes and characters. Rather than a thoughtful but straightforward story about an ordinary man’s misadventures, Train Dreams becomes a poignant meditation on time and ambition.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: The previous two entries in the Knives Out franchise managed to score screenplay nominations, so why was Wake Up Dead Man left in the cold? It seems that Netflix turned the page quickly and unfairly after the film’s release, but Rian Johnson’s third entry stood out because of its thematic depth and continued subversion of the murder-mystery genre. Whereas the first two films relied more on plot twists, the third Benoit Blanc mystery concerned itself with a crisis of faith

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: Much like its Warner Bros. counterpart, Sinners hasn’t lost a step this season in the screenplay race. The Original Screenplay winner of late has often been the “cool” choice, a recognition of originality for a potential future Best Picture winner. One can see Coogler taking home the top prize one day, but he’ll surely feel good about a win here.
• Should Win: Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein’s screenplay for Marty Supreme presents itself as a bracing character study up front, but contains many layered statements about ambition, the American Dream, and post-WWII Jewish identity.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Nobody has their finger on the pulse of modern internet culture better than Kiyoshi Kurosawa. His screenplay for Cloud touched on how being online has rotted our collective brains, while simultaneously being full of humor, action, and suspense.

Best Supporting Actor

• Will Win: Sean Penn took a roundabout way, but his recent wins at the Actor Awards and BAFTA came at the right time. His performance in One Battle After Another is transformative, funny, sad, and terrifying – sometimes all at once. Stunningly (and perhaps smartly), Penn has done little campaigning for his role, letting the work speak for itself, and the industry has still rewarded him, indicating an inherent love for the performance and the work.
• Should Win: Last I checked, there’s no way for the Academy to retroactively award a performance that previously missed a nomination. Delroy Lindo was famously snubbed for his gravitational performance in Da 5 Bloods, so to award him for his work in Sinners would be appropriate, even if it’s for the wrong film.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: A true supporting performance lasting only a couple scenes, William H. Macy’s appearance in Train Dreams suited the film and its tone perfectly. Macy has made a career out of playing wrong-headed buffoons, but his work as a kind of transient storyteller who crosses paths with Joel Edgerton fits the time period and Clint Bentley’s vision for the film.

Best Supporting Actress

• Will Win: In a season dominated by chaos within this category specifically – where a different actress has won each of the major precursors – making a prediction is increasingly difficult. So I’ll stick with the tried and true formula of relying on the presumed Best Picture winner, and give the edge to Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another.
• Should Win: Maybe it’s just my inherent love of actors playing actors, but I thoroughly appreciated Elle Fanning’s work in Sentimental Value. What could have been a simple depiction of a washed-up over-hyped actress becomes something much more complicated, instead feeling like a capable performer in search of validation of her own talents and ambition.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Pamela Anderson drew Oscar buzz in 2024 for her work in The Last Showgirl, but it’s her performance in The Naked Gun which rightfully deserved attention. She’s always been able to sport a comedic side, but she fully commits to every silly bit that the film asks of her. Whether it’s delivering clever wordplay, silly physical comedy, or desperately scatting in a jazz club, Anderson made the most of her screen time in a film that didn’t come within a country mile of the Academy’s radar, but was no less worthy.

Best Actor

• Will Win: After Timothee Chalamet dominated headlines, social media, and early awards for his performance in Marty Supreme, Michael B. Jordan has surged at just the right time. Delivering an impassioned speech to a rapturous audience after accepting the Actor Award for his performance in Sinners – right in the middle of Oscar voting, no less – Jordan is in the stronger Best Picture contender.
• Should Win: Of course, there’s still a world where Chalamet pulls through for Marty Supreme. And he’s who I’ve rooted for all season, as he gives a virtuoso performance which the entire film hinges on. If anyone else had even a smidge less charisma, the film wouldn’t work nearly as well. Chalamet is passionate about his craft, and this would be the perfect opportunity to reward him for it.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Perhaps he’ll be on the stage next year for his performance in Digger, but Tom Cruise’s true passion came to a head in Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. Sure, his work mostly boiled down to hanging off airplanes, but he still had to stay in character while doing so.

Best Actress

• Will Win: At least one of the best acting categories has a safe front-runner amongst the chaos. Jessie Buckley hasn’t lost in any precursors for her performance in Hamnet, and there’s no reason to think she’ll falter at the last minute. As Agnes Shakespeare, Buckley gets to play a whole host of emotions, from anger to sadness to confidence and confusion, and she pulls it off effortlessly.
• Should Win: In a relatively weak field, I can’t deny Buckley’s work in Hamnet. I’ve been a fan of nearly every performance of hers since she broke onto the scene in Wild Rose, and she’ll make for a deserving winner who has the capacity to win many more times throughout her still young career.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Chase Infiniti’s role in One Battle After Another was great, but arguably belonged in the Supporting Actress field. I wasn’t as openly passionate about Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee (though I frequently love her work). But Sydney Sweeney was fantastic in Christy, giving the kind of old-school performance that used to be automatic: physical, transformational, and complicated. Even when the film stumbled, Sweeney managed to roll with it and show the heights of her talent.

Best Director

• Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most celebrated auteurs without an Oscar win under his belt. Whether One Battle After Another wins any other Oscars or not, his win for Best Director is all but assured. Even if he didn’t have the “overdue” narrative at his back, his filmmaking prowess is on full display here, a shining example of efficient directing. Oh, and he hasn’t lost this award all season.
• Should Win: Yes, I love PTA and think he’s more than deserving of being recognized by his peers and the Academy for his directing in One Battle After Another (but let’s be honest, it should have happened for There Will Be Blood). The Academy has never awarded a Black director before, so if Ryan Coogler were to take home the prize for his bold, original work in Sinners, I wouldn’t complain.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: James Sweeney’s work on Twinless is an impressive bit of screenwriting and acting, but it’s his direction which deserves recognition. The visual style that Sweeney employs makes this relatively straightforward story of grief have a distinctive flair that shows he has an instinctive knack for evocative imagery.

Best Picture

• Will Win: When One Battle After Another premiered to near universal praise, it felt like the stars were aligned for PTA to finally receive his overdue recognition from the Academy. Beyond the metatextual narrative, the film urgently speaks to our present-day political reality. A Best Picture Oscar winner doesn’t need to reflect the times we live in, but One Battle After Another would be a perfect reflection of our messy, chaotic, hopeful reality. Some pundits now believe the overwhelming nomination haul for Sinners means it could still take the top prize, but PTA’s film hasn’t missed when it’s needed to so far. I’m sticking with the French 75.
• Should Win: Yes, Train Dreams was my favorite film of 2025, but few things would make me as happy as seeing PTA finally receive his overdue recognition and win for One Battle After Another. The former spoke to my current mindset and station in life, but the latter will stand the test of time and be recognized as a generational film.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s not a stretch to say that It Was Just an Accident likely landed at 11th place in Best Picture voting, given the international love for Jafar Panahi. The Iranian auteur has crafted a story that transcends borders and genres, a thought-provoking, existential but funny fable about justice and morality. Alas, Panahi will simply have to settle for winning the Palme d’Or.

Hollywood’s biggest night, the 98th Academy Awards, is mere days away. One of the most chaotic and wide-open races in recent memory will soon be over, and we’ll finally know who will forever be known as “Oscar winner”. Here’s a comprehensive list of predicted winners, what would receive my vote if I had one, and what should have received a nomination in each category.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Will Win: 2024’s crop of nominees is uniquely situated compared to previous years: none of the nominees feature A-list stars in front of, or behind, the camera, and the only celebrity producers listed are Priyanka Chopra-Jonas and Mindy Kaling for Anuja. This film is also the only nominee that plays on a streaming service (Netflix), which only happened recently. Also, none of the films concern WWII or the Holocaust, which are verifiable catnip to Academy voters in the category. But given its unfortunate topicality – and because it’s the only short of the category in English – A Lien feels like a likely winner.
• Should Win: At the very least, I’m Not a Robot shows that the Live-Action Short category doesn’t have to feature dour, bleak subject matter. The film takes a thoroughly relatable conundrum and twists it to its logical conclusion, while managing to create memorable characters along the way.

Best Documentary Short Film

• Will Win: Documentary Short could be a make-or-break category for your Oscar pool this year. Will the Academy go for the more traditional (and more widely predicted) The Only Girl in the Orchestra, or the formally daring but politically relevant Incident? Recent trends suggest the Academy will go for the less topical, more feel-good film, so that suggests The Only Girl in the Orchestra as the favorite.
• Should Win: No other nominee in this category got my blood boiling quite like Incident, one of the more unique offerings in recent memory. The film utilizes body cam and surveillance footage to present an unbiased recounting of a police execution, and has stuck with me the longest since first viewing.

Best Animated Short Film

• Will Win: Much like the Live Action Short category, most of the typical indicators are unfortunately missing to predict a winner in Animated Short this year. None of the nominees are from a major studio like Disney or Pixar. None are available on a streaming service. None feature Hollywood star talent in creative roles or as voice actors. Wander to Wonder has a BAFTA win, but I think Yuck! could win here because it goes down smoothly, it has an eye-grabbing title, and it’s one of the few nominees that the Academy members could watch with their kids.
• Should Win: In the Shadow of the Cypress is as close to a total package within the category: eye-catching animation, an emotionally resonant story, and a unique statement from its creative team. A win, though unlikely, would be well-deserved.

Best Original Song

• Will Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez has cleaned up in the few precursors available, so it’s likely to win here as well. That the song is one of the more memorable, and memorably constructed, set pieces of the film doesn’t hurt either.
• Should Win: By virtue of being the only nominee from a film that I liked, I’ll say that “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing would be a worthy winner (even if I have no recollection of what the song sounds like or when it comes in to the film).
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot was a surprising omission on Oscar nomination morning, and would have made for a decent challenger. The song comes at the emotional climax of the film (not during the end credits), and is a certified earworm.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Will Win: You can’t have an effective body horror film without outstanding craftsmanship. Academy voters loves creative prosthetics – just look at recent winners The Whale and Poor Things. The use of prosthetics in The Substance, and how crucial they are to the sensation of the film, all but guarantees it a win.
• Should Win: Robert Eggers’ vision for Count Orlok in Nosferatu was one of cinema’s best kept secrets in 2024, and its final reveal was a feat of makeup. Beyond the main vampire prosthetics, the film is abundant with creative makeup and hairstyling work.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Tim Burton’s return in Beetlejuice Beetlejuice valued practical effects over CGI for the first time in too long. The result was a cavalcade of creatively realized original characters that added necessary depth for each new creature and person within the underworld.

Best Costume Design

• Will Win: Based on the sheer breadth and creativity of costumes on display, Wicked is the front-runner here. Recent wins at various guilds, CCA, and BAFTA, along with a general love for the film in nominations across the board, all but assure the film a win.
• Should Win: Aside from the main characters, nearly everyone we see is sporting a unique statement piece worth noticing throughout Wicked. Sure, technically the film has the stage show – and The Wizard of Oz – to lean on, but that doesn’t make the end result any less impressive.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Hundreds of Beavers became the word-of-mouth hit of 2024, and its increasingly silly costumes were only part of the fun. From each of the animal costumes to those of the human characters, Hundreds of Beavers showed that costumes don’t need to be elaborate or expensively crafted in order to be effective.

Best Sound

• Will Win: Dune: Part Two utilized original sci-fi sounds, plus the requisite explosions which the Academy loves, to create a booming cinematic feeling. Though it’s not a clear front-runner, the film’s win at BAFTA puts it ahead by a nose.
• Should Win: Since 3 of the 5 nominees are essentially musicals, I think The Wild Robot would make for a very cool winner. The film’s use of animal noises, creative robotic sounds, and all of the action elements in the third act went a long way in making a total tonal experience.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: If there’s one thing the Sound branch of the Academy gravitates towards, it’s explosions and gunfire. The entire third act of Alex Garland’s Civil War was almost completely made up of gunfire and explosions and chaotic moments, providing one of the loudest theater experiences of the year. Overall sentiment towards the film was divisive, but it’s hard to argue against the immersive sound design of what Garland was able to put together.

Best Film Editing

• Will Win: This is another genuine toss-up category between three or four nominees. With a win at BAFTA, Conclave has the momentum, but Anora has arguably the “most” editing, which tends to win over the Academy. If the voting body is feeling generous towards Anora, or especially wants to reward nominee Sean Baker, a win here would easily signal a big night for the film. I’ll give the edge to Conclave though, since the film essentially takes two hours of loaded conversations without any action sequences and creates a propulsive thriller. (Note that, unlike previous years, we won’t have the ACE Eddie Awards to assist in a prediction.)
• Should Win: Yes, Wicked‘s first half stretched as long as the runtime of the entirety of the stage play. But, for me, I never felt the film’s length, nor did it begin to sag at any moments in the second half – and the musical sequences, especially “What is This Feeling?” are energetically paced. So count this as a deserving win for Wicked.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Perhaps one day documentaries will receive their due recognition for editing. I remain impressed by Amy Foote’s work in Girls State, as she was tasked with not only combing through the endless footage, but crafting a number of compelling narratives into an engaging documentary.

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Daniel Blumberg’s sweeping, operatic score for The Brutalist is the kind of music that harkens back to Oscar winners of yore. The music adds necessary texture to complement the events on screen, often clashing and clanging outside its period trappings. Though Blumberg’s stiffest competition is Volker Bertelmann for Conclave, a previous winner for All Quiet on the Western Front, The Brutalist has picked up enough necessary wins to give it the edge.
• Should Win: Kris Bowers’ score for The Wild Robot is perhaps the most memorable of all of the nominees, hitting the gut in the big emotional swells of the film.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Long before I had even seen Challengers, people were raving about Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s thumping score. Perhaps the Academy has moved on from nominating the Oscar-winning duo, but this was the snub that hurt the most on nomination morning.

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Wicked saw Oz brought to life in a vibrant way, building off the original The Wizard of Oz to create a detailed, lived-in puzzle of sets and props. That the film has essentially cleaned up in precursors won’t stop it from winning here.
• Should Win: It feels a little crazy that a film like The Brutalist – a film literally about building structures in an artistic manner – isn’t walking away with a Production Design Oscar, but the Academy hasn’t always thought in these terms.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: I may have only seen a handful of Pedro Almodóvar’s recent films, but The Room Next Door was a gorgeous feat of production design. Every scene bursts with color and vibrancy, reflecting the melodramatic subject matter and existential journeys of the characters.

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: If there’s any sure bet on Oscar night, make it Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects. There was no film that looked as good on a big screen in 2024, and the visual effects were seamlessly incorporated to create an inventive spectacle. A worthy follow-up to a previous Oscar win for 2021’s Dune feels right.
• Should Win: Who am I kidding? Dune: Part Two had some of the best visual effects I’ve ever seen. Even in some of the better films incorporating CGI, there remains a moment where the seems begin to show and what you’re seeing is clearly fake. That was never the case with Dune: Part Two, even with the more fantastical elements.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: In a year when the visual effects offerings were fairly shallow, A Quiet Place: Day One deserves credit for its continued excellence not just in monster mayhem, but in essentially destroying New York City. Yes, the sound is often the more notable technical element in the A Quiet Place franchise, but its CGI work shouldn’t go unnoticed.

Best Cinematography

• Will Win: Nosferatu has the slightest momentum in terms of precursor wins, but The Brutalist is the favorite with a Best Picture nomination. Lol Crowley’s cinematography is gorgeous throughout the film, and utilizes the landscapes and production design smartly.
• Should Win: Sure, we technically already saw and rewarded Greig Fraser for his work in the Dune films. But what he was able to do with Dune: Part Two resulted in some of the most captivating imagery in film last year. The film was appointment viewing on the biggest screen possible, and it’s mostly thanks to the film’s cinematography.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Eric Yue’s neon-soaked cinematography in I Saw the TV Glow went a long way in creating the film’s unique atmosphere. The aesthetic fits not only the film’s period setting but the foreboding sense of dread around every corner, and went mostly unrecognized throughout much of the film’s awards campaign.

Best International Feature

• Will Win: What is usually a slam-dunk prediction has been thrown an interesting curveball this year, as International Feature comes down to I’m Still Here versus Emilia Pérez. Both are Best Picture nominees (a first), and both are clearly beloved. Neither film would surprise me for a win, but because of the recent nosedive in goodwill for Emilia Pérez, and because of its late-breaking momentum in attention, I’ll sheepishly predict I’m Still Here.
• Should Win: Mohamed Rasoulof deserves more credit for what he was able to accomplish with The Seed of the Sacred Fig. One of 2024’s best film narratives was in how Rasoulof had to make the film in secret and fled Iran in order to get it seen. Filmmaking has rarely ever been so brave.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Pakistan’s entry, The Glassworker, represents a major milestone for global cinema. The first ever hand-drawn animated film from the country was barely seen but was no less worthy of recognition. Do yourself a favor and seek it out wherever possible.

Best Documentary Feature

• Will Win: Recent winners of the Documentary Feature Oscar have been nothing if not topical reflections of global situations. This category stands as a two-horse race between No Other Land and Porcelain War. The former is the buzzier, more passionate film with no US distribution, but is a bit of a political buzzsaw. Porcelain War mirrors other recent winners like 20 Days in Mariupol and Navalny, and has a DGA win. I won’t be surprised if either wins, but I’ll pick Porcelain War.
• Should Win: In an era when bad people can and do get away with almost anything, Black Box Diaries presented an easy, crowd-pleasing watch as one woman fights for justice against her rapist – a well-connected official in the Japanese government. If only the concept didn’t feel so foreign in America, the film could maybe stand a better chance at winning.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Africa has been severely underrepresented at the Oscars, and Dahomey would have made for a worthwhile nomination. Mati Diop’s documentary was one of the most thoughtful, distinctly executed films of 2024, examining a current event that stretches far outside the continent of Africa.

Best Animated Feature

• Will Win: For the second year in a row, the Animated Feature race is actually competitive, and in similar ways to last year. Will the Academy favor the box office and critical success of The Wild Robot, or will they prefer the international appeal of Flow? The former received one more nomination than the latter, with a surprise nomination for Best Sound. As I said last year, neither film deserves to go home empty handed, but The Wild Robot has the slight edge.
• Should Win: Yes, I like The Wild Robot better, but a win for Flow would be a huge win for independent animation, which rarely even gets a seat at the Oscars table. The film comes almost exclusively from Gints Zilbalodis, and the result feels appropriately singular. Besides, The Wild Robot director Chris Sanders has the opportunity to make more Oscar-worthy adaptations of Peter Brown’s series of novels.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Is Transformers One a great film? Maybe not, but it’s perhaps the best Transformers movie, and much better than it had any right to be, exceeding expectations to be a poignant story of friendship and loyalty. I’ll take a thousand of these over any more live-action Michael Bay versions.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: Conclave has not missed in any major precursors, and I see no reason to doubt its chances at the Oscars. Peter Straughan’s adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel made few changes but was no less thrillingly plotted, with three-dimensional characters and thought-provoking twists.
• Should Win: Obviously I have a deep love for Nickel Boys and want it to win at the few places where it was nominated. But if I’m in the mood to spread the love, I can’t help but admire the work of adaptation within Sing Sing. To take a real-life story and create such memorable characters, and definable stakes is no small accomplishment.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: On that note, Richard Linklater and Glen Powell’s work in adapting a Texas Monthly article to create Hit Man resulted in pure joy. A flashy mash-up of tones, styles, and genres, Linklater’s film was a feat of adaptation and storytelling.

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: For the first time in forever, Original Screenplay is as close to a 4-horse race as possible (sorry, September 5). The win for A Real Pain at BAFTA and WGA complicates matters, but I think the Best Picture front-runner status, plus all the precursor wins, puts things in Anora‘s favor.
• Should Win: More than his acting and directing, I walked away from A Real Pain impressed with Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay. His ability to subvert expectations for a film’s subject matter which often leans into easy sentimentality should be commended.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s easy to pigeon-hole His Three Daughters as a film that feels like a stage play. No matter, Azazel Jacobs’s screenplay was full of realistically rendered characters and conversations that existed outside the confines of the format.

Best Supporting Actor

• Will Win: Though his film lacks a Best Picture nomination (and though he’s technically the co-lead of the film), Kieran Culkin has gone unchallenged all season for his work in A Real Pain. Culkin is a beloved performer, gives fantastic acceptance speeches, and is uniquely vulnerable in the film, so it’s a win that the Academy will feel good about.
• Should Win: Culkin’s former Succession castmate, Jeremy Strong, gives a characteristically sound performance as the modern American embodiment of evil, Roy Cohn, in The Apprentice. His third-act heel turn remains one that has stuck with me since finally watching the film, and it’s no coincidence that the film sags in momentum when he exits after the midway point.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Chris Hemsworth made a meal out of his role as the villain in Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, turning in his best performance to date. Yes, the film should have received some love elsewhere, especially in its technical elements, but Hemsworth stood above them all.

Best Supporting Actress

• Will Win: Zoe Saldaña has gone unchallenged throughout awards season for her work in Emilia Pérez. Even if she should actually belong in Lead Actress, and regardless of the crumbling love for the film, Saldaña carries the emotions of the film, and is a beloved actress amongst her peers. This is one of the surest bets across the entire ceremony.
• Should Win: My first comparison when watching Ariana Grande in Wicked was of Ariana DeBose in West Side Story. Just like with DeBose, Grande’s is a charismatic, energetic performance that was tailor-made to win awards. Perhaps the Academy is holding space for Wicked: For Good to award Grande for her fun, bubbly portrayal of Galinda the Good Witch.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Every time I’ve watched Nickel Boys, I continue to be floored by Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s performance. Perhaps her role wasn’t prominent enough for the Academy, or the technical and storytelling elements stood out more, but the work speaks for itself.

Best Actor

• Will Win: Emma Stone’s win last year for Poor Things showed that the Academy cares less about anointing new stars than rewarding favored performances. And the recent spate of biopic performances losing bodes better for Adrien Brody to win for his searing performance in The Brutalist over Timothée Chalamet.
• Should Win: Ralph Fiennes is one of those actors who feels like he should easily have at least one Oscar win under his belt by now. His work in Conclave may very well be the best of his long career, as his character carries the weight of the world on his shoulders. Perhaps it’s fitting, given the narrative of Conclave, that Fiennes was the front-runner early in the season and now feels like a distant contender.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: It’s not often when an Oscar nominee feels like he was overlooked by himself, but Sebastian Stan could have and should have been nominated for his work in A Different Man. Stan gets to be funny, emotional, sympathetic, and pathetic – sometimes all at once – while revealing new sides to himself that he hasn’t shown before.

Best Actress

• Will Win: Demi Moore has the career narrative, plus a host of televised award wins (including Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG) to carry her to an easy win. Oh yea, and she’s fantastic in The Substance, fully buying in to every deranged direction that the film goes in. Not to be overlooked: there’s been an unavoidable correlation since 2021 between the winner of Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Lead Actor/Actress. Since The Substance is the strong favorite to win there, it gives Moore the edge in my eyes.
• Should Win: Mikey Madison commands the screen from the opening minutes of Anora until the end. Though it feels like her chances have faded recently, a win here would be a sure sign that the film wins Best Picture, and would be an anointing of Madison as a bona fide star of the future.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Even being a Mike Leigh neophyte, Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s performance in Hard Truths was one of the most captivating of 2024. What she was able to do – mostly via improv, reportedly – by crafting such an unlikeable but sympathetic character was an Oscar-worthy feat if there ever was one.

Best Director

• Will Win: A category that’s usually a sure thing is a much closer race this year, in a race between Anora‘s Sean Baker, and The Brutalist‘s Brady Corbet. Baker has the DGA win – which typically predicts the Oscar over anything else – but Corbet has wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. Since Anora stands a better chance at a Best Picture win, I’ll predict Baker.
• Should Win: I still don’t know how Brady Corbet pulled off what he did with The Brutalist under the constraints he had. That he was able to craft a 215-minute period epic with a 30 day production schedule and less than 10 million dollars is one of the great directorial achievements in some time, and deserves proper recognition.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Perhaps it was just wishful thinking, but there was a minute where Payal Kapadia could have surprised for her work on All We Imagine as Light. Nevertheless, the film remains a feat of Kapadia’s direction, and a unique, personal statement – and one of the best films of 2024.

Best Picture

• Will Win: One of the most chaotic and wide-open Best Picture races in recent memory will soon come to a merciful close. Its front-runner status went through ebbs and flows since winning the Palme d’Or last year, but it feels like Anora has finally emerged as the front-runner after decisive wins at Critics Choice and PGA (the only other precursor which also uses the preferential ballot system). Conclave feels like it’s right behind Anora, and has widely been seen as a “safe” bet for most of the season, so if any other film stands a chance, place your bet there.
• Should Win: If the Oscars were all about pure artistry, Nickel Boys would be a runaway winner in many categories. RaMell Ross’s unique vision for Colson Whitehead’s novel speaks to America’s past while looking at our present circumstances and asking us to look inward at ourselves. There are some Best Picture winners that speak more to their current times, and there are those that stand the test of time. Nickel Boys does both.
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Before nominations were announced, A Real Pain was safely in as a Best Picture nominee amongst most Oscar pundits’ predictions. That the film likely ended up in eleventh place is no small comfort, but it remains one of the best of 2024.